Their numbers have thinned but remain present in the new social movement opposing the ‘ pass sanitaire’ – the proof of vaccination necessary to use long-distance transport, to enter restaurants and to attend public events. Macron Has faced the popular rancour of the ‘gilet jaunes’, those disaffected by their sense of being left behind. In 20, Macron faced the popular rancour of the ‘ gilet jaunes’ (‘yellow vests’), those disaffected by their sense of being left behind by cost-of-living increases, globalisation and the rule of technocratic élites. His attempts to loosen labour laws and reduce pension entitlements have been seen as an attack on the French ‘social model’ and have alienated many left-of-centre voters who supported him in 2017. While Macron has a positive image outside France as the face of democracy and globalism, the articulate junior partner to Angela Merkel, within France his liberalism is more often criticised as technocratic and socially elitist. Perhaps because Macron correctly sees his main opposition coming from candidates to his right, he has been prepared to strengthen his appeal to nationalist sentiment – for example, using his Education Minister to castigate what they dismissed as ‘Islamo-leftism’ in universities. Australia's Foreign Policy for dangerous times But much of her program remains similar: stronger policing, hostility to both Europe and ‘Islamisation’, and appeals to ‘freedom’, including the right not to vaccinate. Le Pen has worked assiduously to make her brand more respectable, symbolically changing her party’s name from Front National to Rassemblement National (RN, ‘National Rally’). If Le Pen is again his opponent, the outcome may be the same, but it is likely to be closer. In 2017 Macron won the presidential election comfortably because, apart from those who supported him, he could also count on support from those across the political spectrum for whom the ideological baggage of the Le Pen family made it unelectable. Support for the older, established centre-right and centre-left parties imploded. He pitched himself as the new centrist, almost above politics in his broad appeal as an agent of change after decades of stagnation. Emmanuel Macron pitched himself as the new centrist, almost above politics in his broad appeal. In the parliamentary elections that followed his presidential win, Macron’s LRM candidates won 314 of the 577 constituencies. One year later, in May 2017, he became President of the Fifth French Republic by a percentage margin of about 65:35 over Marine Le Pen.Īged just 39, he was France’s youngest leader since Napoleon Bonaparte became Emperor aged 35 in 1804. Of international significance, too, is what the presidential election will signal about France’s leadership in Europe, all the more important with the departure of Angela Merkel in September 2021 after 16 years as Chancellor of Germany.Įmmanuel Macron launched his political party La République en Marche! (LRM, ‘The Republic on the Move!’) in April 2016. If this results in a vote to stay with France, like the earlier two, how will France respond to Kanak discontent? Is Australia becoming the 'lonely' country? The French government immediately criticised “the removal of an ally and a European partner such as France from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region”.Įmbedded in that strategic question is the status of New Caledonia, where the third of three referenda on independence will be held in a few months, on 12 December. PIcture: Getty ImagesĪustralia’s decision on 16 September to abandon the $A90 billion submarine contract with the French shipbuilder Naval Group will have significant repercussions needing to be managed. President Joe Biden announced that the United Staters would share nuclear submarine technology with Australia. Why does the election matter to Australia? Most important, from a strategic point of view, is whether there is to be continuity in France’s commitment to involvement alongside Australia in the fraught geo-politics of the Indo-Pacific. Will the next President of France be Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen or another of the candidates who will contest the first round of the elections on 10 April 2022? If no-one wins a majority (and that seems virtually impossible), the two front-runners will face off a fortnight later on the 24th April.
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